Syria in Reality: Iran's Power and Israel's Policy
- Iran is the most powerful actor in the regime-held part of Syria in terms of military and economic resources and associated parties. Territories deemed vital for Iran in there are under direct and explicit control of Iran, especially the region that extends from Qalamoon to Deir ezzor.
- Iran invested in a complex infrastructure in Syria consisting of military forces, paramilitary militias, economic networks, military and security personnel, and religious and social institutions.
- Iran is working to strengthen its on-ground presence in SDF-held region and even in factions and Turkish-controlled areas.
- Iran has a real presence and influence in the southern Syria neighbouring the Israeli border taking advantage of the complexity and diversity of this important region and especially of the reconciliation agreements since 2018 there.
- Iran enjoys the ability to deploy military assets and resources almost anywhere in the regime-held areas in a short timeframe, although with various ranges or limited firepower. This includes the southern region that can threaten and reach the Israeli lands. Furthermore, in case of a renovated domestic clash or war, Iran definitely would have the upper hand through its associates and proxies in the current status quo in the regime-held areas.
- Iran is not likely to hand over the valuable card of its presence in Syrian regions that threaten northern Israel for free after the huge resources it spent to get there. The dreamy or aspiring Israeli statements can not change these facts and reality. The utmost achievement that can be attained through Israeli continuous airstrike campaign is to prevent Iran from establishing permanent full-fledged military bases near the Israeli border in military terms. However, the Iran's relations with Syrian military forces in this region should be visited to check this reality. I don't know what the Israelis mean with "Hizbollah 2" term, but I definitely know that Hizbollah 1 and many mini Hizbollahs are already there.
- Reaching Mediterranean Sea has always been a key aspiration and goal in Iranian history. Iranian success in obtaining a corridor to the Mediterranean through Syria has a considerable and substantial implications for the Middle East's geopolitics and the Iranian power and influence considering that there was no secured land route between Hizbollah-controlled Beirut port and Iran.
- Iran's withdrawal from Syria has never been a goal of any international power. At the contrary, the United States, for example, permitted a wide Iranian engagement in Syria for many objectives including the exhaustion of Iran, and it is actually employing a tamed Iranian role in Syria within its regional policy as it always did. Moreover, the reports and analyses of a conflict or competition between the Russian and Iranian roles and interests in Syria have been proven totally baseless during a decade of the crisis before and after their direct engagement. There are always boundaries within which, all parties tolerate if do not even cooperate. This also applies to the regional powers excluding Israel the only quite loser of a substantial Iranian presence and influence in Syria.
- One major consequence of the aforementioned realities is the case of Iran moving forward to some advanced structure of controlling Syria, which revolves between dominance and de facto partition. This depends on the international and regional political contexts besides the deteriorating economic and humanitarian situation and circumstances inside Syria, which are collapsing and approaching the threshold of the failed state. Possible scenarios in this regard will be discussed later in future articles. Meanwhile, we should keep an eye on two kinds of developments in this regard, the first is related to Turkey's initiatives and moves, the rising loser of the current balance of power and the leaked proposed solutions in Syria, while the second is the relations between Iran and the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, the only natural, or even possible, Sunni ally of Iran in Syria should Iran decided to move further in its way.
Let us move to the analysis of the aforementioned realities in the part related to Israel and its policy in Syria during the crisis.
- It is widely accepted and believed among Syrians that Israel opted for two pillars in its Syria policy after the uprising and even before its advent particularly in the aftermath of the Operation Iraqi Freedom (US Iraq invasion). These pillars are maintaining the inherited governance structure and weakening Syria at the furthest of the threshold before state failing.
- Israel ignored the Syrian people's aspirations of freedom and good governance, so they can have a normal life with dignity and reasonable level of prosperity. Israeli decision-makers missed the fact that this aspired reality is an indispensable ground for an active, productive and sustainable peace between the two neighbors, who live on the same geographic region beside each other and will stay so for life.
- Then, Israel did not invest in a sustainable peace with Syria, but rather, with a very short-sighted policy, it contributed to the destruction and chaos in its neighbor with the previously-mentioned two pillars of its policy. No need to remind here of Israel's wide resources and means, especially the considerable leverage it holds in terms of influencing the relevant US policies.
- The consequent realities in Syria, particularly the significant level of devastation and chaos were the requisites for Iran's current power and abilities in Syria, which were explained earlier. Then, the Israeli policy was a key enabling factor for Iran's current influence in Syria.
- Getting Iran out of Syria has become an unrealistic goal given the current status quo and balance of power. In fact, no party of the international and regional powers involved in the Syrian case has the ability to achieve Iran's withdrawal, if it had such interest and intention in the first place, which is doubtful for all of them excluding Israel. Moreover, expecting from Syrian parties, especially the regime, to do so is totally unreasonable, and all related efforts in this regard yielded only disappointment, failure and waste of time if were not even counterproductive.
- The containment of Iran's power in Syria rests basically on two kinds of engagement, the deprivation of economic resources and means of funding, which unfortunately has humanitarian consequences on the population residing in the regime-held region, and the military pressure campaign undertaken continuously by Israel and occasionally by western allies mainly the United States. The economic pressure makes it hard to control and dominate with a stable and secure governance system and government besides putting any ruling regime in front of the population's endless needs, and the military pressure makes it hard to build a permanent reliable military bases and power with sustainable supply chains of military resources. However, containment policies are always limited by the characteristics of the status quo, which should be reasonably stable, as they usually fail with deteriorating situations.
- There is a significant widely-overlooked consequence related to the various Syrian actors. As the situation in Syria has been considerably deteriorating through the last year, many Syrian national and local actors may eventually seek solutions on their own after they have been failed by the US and its western allies. This may include various kinds of engagement with the parties that have influence, power or economic means on the ground. Such engagement will make any influence or power of foreign parties more profound, secure and sustainable, which will make it very hard to make any change for other parties and will eventually endanger their interests.
- Syria is becoming one of the most dangerous places on earth. With world-class Syrian brands of Captagon, jihadists, militants and many other kinds of troubles including a new prospective huge wave of refugees, Syria will be an international source of instability, dangers and problems, which will definitely not be limited to the Middle East region, especially as it is approaching the failed state threshold. Then, it is the due time for a situation-evaluation followed by a reconsideration and a substantial policy change at the earliest for all parties and actors, particularly the states that are sharing influence in Syria and responsibility in Syria's disaster.
The implications of the current situation at the Syrian side and the possible scenarios and analyses of the Syria policies of the involved states will be discussed in future articles.
