Middle East Policy

Through my attentive watch of the political and strategic developments in the Middle East, I can profoundly suggest that Israel's foremost problem belongs to the Israeli mentality and its conventional persistent perspective. By which, Palestinians are considered the essential source of threats and dangers that threaten Israel's existence and wellbeing. Then, this belief is directing almost all Israeli strategies and policies, which obviously have been resulting a consecutive series of failures and shortcomings at the domestic and regional levels in strategic and security terms.  For the governing establishment of Israel, coexistence with Palestinians is an existential myth and impossible end despite that Oslo agreement and consequent cooperation with the Palestinian Authority refuted this belief.  Furthermore, the recent developments in the Middle East since the Obama nuclear deal with Iran along with Obama's policies that empowered Iran and its regional 're...

It seems that the Israeli governmental establishment applies the 'ostrich' perspective as regards the Israeli Syria policy and the Iranian entrenchment in post-war Syria, which is reluctant to see or recognize. They are still insisting that they managed to defeat the Iranian 'project' (by their own definition of this project) in Syria and hold an assessment which concluds that post-war Syria is not a geopolitical field of the Iranian influence. This conclusion is definitely not shared by the vast majority of the Syrian scholars and activists, who have a quite different assessment of the Iranian power and influence in their country Syria.  These substantially different assessments and conclusions prompt a necessary enquiries to discern this persistent Israeli pretence: - What is the Israeli governmental understanding of the outstanding comprehensive Iranian power and influence in Syria in the military, governmental, economic and social fields? - Does Iran ha...

Seven months ago, I wrote about the failure of the Israeli policy in Syria, which poses Israel as a main regional loser in the aftermath of the war in Syria. This article has been followed by other articles describing the following changing balance in the Middle East between Israel and Iran to the benefit of Iran and the role of Israeli policies and its traditional strategy and means toward its regional strategic loss. Meanwhile, the Israeli government and intelligence establishment were in quite different place claiming even achievements in Syria as regards Iran's entrenchment there. The academia and research institutions were in-between. Recently, it came to my attention this article by Ehud Yaari, which is the ever best Israeli analysis I have read in months. Finally, there is some scholar in Israel has the realistic and true assessment of the situation in Syria and the Israeli policy there along with the strategic conclusion. This is definitely a useful work, as th...

Once again, my empirical realistic perspective proves its competency and applicability. At the significance level, nothing exceptional can be inferred from the Iranian president's visit to Damascus should we apply conventional political analysis methodology. But this will not be the case if we put this visit in the context and perspective set by my latest related articles posted in the latest weeks. Starting from Iran's rising power in Syria and going through my conclusion about Iran's intention and plans to achieve a geopolitical change and advance its interests reaching to the realities of the changing Middle East accompanied by Iran's 'changer' role , we can transparently find out the significance and importance of this visit and its outcomes. - In general, through the lifespan of the Syrian war, there were no breakthroughs or considerable accomplishments at the level of state-to-state relations between Iran and Syria. Many agreements had been...

Only a few days after I inferred Iran's intentions to achieve a change and advanced interests at the regional and international levels derived from its acquired strong regional standing and cards, and a few weeks after writing on Iran's rising power in Syria following the failure of the US and Israeli policies there, a practical proof arose by the latest rocket salvo on Israel . Iran clearly wants new regional rules and position and consequent regional and international recognition of its power and interests. In my opinion, the ultimate prize in this regard that Iran is seeking is to protect its nuclear program and facilities in the pursuit of attaining the implicit regional and explicit international recognition of the reality of the nuclear Iran.  Iran's new endeavor has been made possible only with its entrenchment in Syria , so the rockets from Syria were the concluding line of the Iranian message of the multi-front rocket salvo. The weakening Russian rol...

  Less than 3 months before this major development, I wrote this  commentary , which was faced with underestimation by many western fellow scholars. They wouldn't believe it considering the announced strategic partnership between China and Saudi Arabia as just tactical maneuver by Saudi Arabia the well-established US backyard ally for timely purposes and gains. This position was widely adopted by the US political and governmental circles as well. I can understand this western stance as a typical behavior because the leading powers along with their mentalities are usually reluctant to recognize and acknowledge ‘change’ that affects their supremacy in general. This  Chinese-backed agreement  constitutes a double blow to the US stand and interests in the Middle East in political terms for the following reasons. Firstly, China has shown and proved in the most practical and factual way that it has interests wide beyond the previously-established renown and accepted econom...

  Israel army chief has made a statement about his country's achievements in preventing "Hizbollah 2" project in Syria. Apart from the motives behind this misleading or self-deluded statement, there are key facts should be stated and clarified concerning Iran, Israel and Syria's war and crisis.  - Iran is the most powerful actor in the regime-held part of Syria in terms of military and economic resources and associated parties. Territories deemed vital for Iran in there are under direct and explicit control of Iran, especially the region that extends from Qalamoon to Deir ezzor.   - Iran invested in a complex infrastructure in Syria consisting of military forces, paramilitary militias, economic networks, military and security personnel, and religious and social institutions. - Iran is working to strengthen its on-ground presence in SDF-held region and even in factions and Turkish-controlled areas. - Iran has a real presence and influence in the southern Syria neighb...