Prompting a New Phase in the Middle East: Iran Claims Victory in Syria


Once again, my empirical realistic perspective proves its competency and applicability. At the significance level, nothing exceptional can be inferred from the Iranian president's visit to Damascus should we apply conventional political analysis methodology. But this will not be the case if we put this visit in the context and perspective set by my latest related articles posted in the latest weeks. Starting from Iran's rising power in Syria and going through my conclusion about Iran's intention and plans to achieve a geopolitical change and advance its interests reaching to the realities of the changing Middle East accompanied by Iran's 'changer' role, we can transparently find out the significance and importance of this visit and its outcomes.

- In general, through the lifespan of the Syrian war, there were no breakthroughs or considerable accomplishments at the level of state-to-state relations between Iran and Syria. Many agreements had been previously signed by the two states that didn't succeed in achieving high trade volume between the two countries or formalizing the Iranian actual linkage with Syria's infrastructure and state executive structure. This is maybe because of the war settings and the Iranian preference and expertise in substate domain and relations over the official formal state level. Hence, the added 15 agreements by this visit are not expected to make a breakthrough in this regard. An exception can be made here, in my opinion, in two fields if Iran has officially obtained Syrian lands in return for its huge debts as it asked earlier, and privileges and rights in the transportation and railways domains, so it can formalize its access to the strategic corridor to the Mediterranean Sea. However, even if this is the case, this would not affect Iran's on-ground dominance and influence on its vital Syrian infrastructure and geography in practical terms.

- A keynote of this visit is its timing, which came after Chinese-brokered Saudi-Iranian rapproachment agreement, and following the start of the Arab normalization course with the Syrian regime and just before the re-admittance of the Syrian regime to the Arab League. For me, it is hard to believe that this normalization and the re-admittance decision was not a part of the Iranian-Saudi agreement. This timing is apparently set to expose this fact as an Iranian accomplishment.

- The milestone of this visit, which summarizes and represents the entire significance and indication of Iran's policy and position in Syria, is the Iranian president's victory speech at Sayyeda Zainab Shiite shrine in Damascus. In this speech in this very particular place and in almost absence of any Syrian official the Iranian president claimed victory. He also did not miss the chance to articulate the advancing "resistance front" that has been advantaged against the "Zionist regime" by the new developments in the region. This iconic scene, as previously mentioned, summarizes and represents the Iranian perception of the regional developments and the resulting Iranian advancement and position in geopolitical terms. It also serves as an indication of the forthcoming Iranian policies and course of action in the Middle East or even beyond. Indigenous Middle Eastern scholars, with unbiased non-ideological realistic methodologies, will find no difficulty reaching this conclusion because they have the mentality of the region and the familiarity with its 'ecosystem' that make the regional political signs and actions comprehensible to them.

In the changing Middle East, Iran has played at the strategic level with a deliberate vision and objectives. In this regard, Iran for reaching the utmost of interests, influence, and geopolitical role, has deployed various kinds of policies and powers ranging from the rapproachment with, let us call it, the eastern side powers particularly the Saudi Arabia and other Sunni countries to the deliberate deployment of powers and assets, including rockets and drones, in front of the western side powers particularly Israel and the United States.

Syria, the strategic geography and the very important and even vital geopolitical arena, which is overlooked and missed by the US and Israel, has been chosen by Iran as the climax center and playground for Iran's regional role and power as demonstrated by this iconic victorious visit and speech in this very particular timing and place. 

This is definitely signaling a new phase in the region marking Iran out as a key regional player with advanced position and role, which has been made possible, in my opinion, by the failing U.S. and Israeli policies in Syria. 

Stay tuned to my Twitter and NeoInternationalism website for the exciting developments in the world's politics.



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