Middle East's New Era: China's Prominence and the U.S. Retreat

 


Less than 3 months before this major development, I wrote this commentary, which was faced with underestimation by many western fellow scholars. They wouldn't believe it considering the announced strategic partnership between China and Saudi Arabia as just tactical maneuver by Saudi Arabia the well-established US backyard ally for timely purposes and gains. This position was widely adopted by the US political and governmental circles as well. I can understand this western stance as a typical behavior because the leading powers along with their mentalities are usually reluctant to recognize and acknowledge ‘change’ that affects their supremacy in general.

This Chinese-backed agreement constitutes a double blow to the US stand and interests in the Middle East in political terms for the following reasons. Firstly, China has shown and proved in the most practical and factual way that it has interests wide beyond the previously-established renown and accepted economic interests in the Middle East, and most importantly, that it has power and means to achieve them. Given that this Chinese reality extends to the both sides or axises of the Middle East, this makes the Chinese regional presence and influence of much more significance, as it included the key regional powers of the both vying camps, the pro and anti-US sides. Secondly, on the Saudi Arabian side, this move towards Iran in this very particular time of high nuclear and political tension between Iran and the US-led west significantly amplifies its political and strategic impact on the US regional stand and influence and reinforces the political independence and national interests of Saudi Arabia the ever-being US ally. Moreover, it strengthens the Iranian position in front of the current western pressure as well.

These regional developments indicate a strategic change and transparently mark the start of a new strategic and geopolitical phase in the Middle East. In this regard the US needs to reassess its Middle East policy and realign the wider scope of its interests in the region with its regional allies of states and substate actors’ interests to maintain its interests and uphold its regional influence, and needs also to recalibrate its regional strategy with the same actors and to the same end, The same advice also roughly applies to Israel, the key US-led camp’s regional power, with one essential addition that it needs to play with different cards in the region. Otherwise, it will be a key loser in the prospective regional change. In this regard, I believe that Israel’s Syria policy and role is a must and due course for Israel’s new deal to avoid a much-probable strategic loss or even defeat in the changing Middle East. The prospective implications for the region, the US and Israel will be addressed in future articles.

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