The Changing Middle East: Traditional Israel and Changer Iran

Only a few days after I inferred Iran's intentions to achieve a change and advanced interests at the regional and international levels derived from its acquired strong regional standing and cards, and a few weeks after writing on Iran's rising power in Syria following the failure of the US and Israeli policies there, a practical proof arose by the latest rocket salvo on Israel. Iran clearly wants new regional rules and position and consequent regional and international recognition of its power and interests. In my opinion, the ultimate prize in this regard that Iran is seeking is to protect its nuclear program and facilities in the pursuit of attaining the implicit regional and explicit international recognition of the reality of the nuclear Iran. 

Iran's new endeavor has been made possible only with its entrenchment in Syria, so the rockets from Syria were the concluding line of the Iranian message of the multi-front rocket salvo. The weakening Russian role in Syria due to the very extreme western pressure following hostilities in Ukraine caused the collapse of the Russian indispensable balance of power with Iran, which added to Iran's power and role, or even made the current Iran position in Syria possible. The importance of the Syrian front for both Iran and Israel is pertaining to its geography and location which connects Iran to Mediterranean Sea and Lebanon, and exposing Israel's most important area to potential threat besides the perks of neighboring Turkey and proximity to the Gulf states. 

The earlier denial or indifference to Iran's accumulated regional power and cards was catastrophic and very harmful to the region and the western interests and influence in the region as demonstrated by recent developments, especially the rising Chinese role in the Middle East. This denial cost the losing of the ability to undertake preemptive measures or policy, which became out of reach and beyond availability. Thus, the only applicable course of action left is of proactive nature while missing a relevant and competent proactive policy for any reason, including the astonishing US negligence by usually the Democrat administrations, will probably means and leads to somehow handing over the region to Iran. 

Apart from the Biden administration's negligence, or even empowerment of Iran in the Middle East, which is consistent with previous Obama administrations' policies and considering the US regional waning role and presence, Israel has exposed misunderstanding of the situation in Syria and its foundations and consequent lack of effectual vision to deal with it. Moreover, Israel still shows this misunderstanding and misbelief, which result in failed policies that worsen the situation in Syria and the region and empower its regional rivals or adversaries putting its security under their threat. Playing old cards in a new game and playing in tactical level in a strategic situation could not be less than destructive and counterproductive at best. Israel is in need of a brand new Syria policy that is based on a new vision besides deploying new means at the strategic level. 

I can see an apparent change in the Middle East is taking place, which is unfortunately faced with a desire and policies of many regional countries including some regional powers that seek to restore the old Middle East and its traditional regional politics in vain of course. In this context, Iran has demonstrated, at least for the time being, the patience, ability and will to mastermind this change and its outcomes to its own benefit, which enables it to gain the upper hand in the current developments in the Middle East.

Stay tuned to my Twitter and NeoInternationalism website for the exciting developments in the world's politics.

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