Iran's Acknowledged Presence in Syria: From Permeation to Imposition


Iran made a significant statement about its presence in Syria that has been almost overlooked by the media and analysts. Its significance wasn't highlighted despite it can be considered as a key development in this regard.

 
In general, we got used to the Iranian threatening rhetoric of retaliation after been hit by usually Israeli and occasionally US air strikes, but this is the first time Iran acknowledges its military 'bases' and their existence in Syria. The Iranian security spokesman was clear in using the term 'bases' in his threatening statement. This is an Iranian precedent to my knowledge. Iran usually talks about its advisors in Syria who assist the Syrian 'legitimate government' in its 'war against terrorism' and never indicated its possession of military bases or 'Iranian-linked' military bases throughout the entire duration of the war in Syria.

 
In my opinion, this is definitely not a statement to neglect or miss. Iran is deliberately announcing and exposing this key military fact, and is intentionally leveraging the acknowledgement of its military presence and role in Syria from the advisors level to a fully fledged military level that is related to military bases. This move of leverage is to replicate itself at the level of Iran's regional and international relations.


When some regional or international power uncovers and acknowledges a fact concerning its assets, power or influence, this means that it intends to take advantage of them and to benefit of them in some way or another. Thus, Iran intends a change in the current status quo. It publicly enters the arena of key players in the Syrian conflict and Syrian geography. This intended 'change' may take various and multiple kinds and goals starting from obtaining the international recognition of Iranian role and interests in Syria to the range of negotiating the scope and limits of these role and interests with othe players, or even may reach the goal of seeking to settle the Syrian situation in a desired way or according to the Iranian interests. All of this wide range is currently within Iranian reach, and we need to observe the developments and future Iranian measures to find out Iran's goals and intentions.

 
The bottom line of this development and the concurrent other developments is that many of the key players in the Syrian conflict are preparing the scene for a prospective settlement while waiting for the results of the Turkish elections next month.

 
Stay tuned with the exciting developments with my Twitter, Middle East Policy Blog, and NeoInternationalism. 

 

Popular posts from this blog

Israel's Strategy in Syria: From Enabling Iran to Strategic Loss

Image
Seven months ago, I wrote about the failure of the Israeli policy in Syria, which poses Israel as a main regional loser in the aftermath of the war in Syria. This article has been followed by other articles describing the following changing balance in the Middle East between Israel and Iran to the benefit of Iran and the role of Israeli policies and its traditional strategy and means toward its regional strategic loss. Meanwhile, the Israeli government and intelligence establishment were in quite different place claiming even achievements in Syria as regards Iran's entrenchment there. The academia and research institutions were in-between. Recently, it came to my attention this article by Ehud Yaari, which is the ever best Israeli analysis I have read in months. Finally, there is some scholar in Israel has the realistic and true assessment of the situation in Syria and the Israeli policy there along with the strategic conclusion. This is definitely a useful work, as th
Read more

Gambling on the Warhead, Iran Gets the Requisite Missile

Image
It seems that the mainstream media follows the course of their governments in their coverage of political and other related developments. As the US Democrat administrations with many other European governments usually incline to practically overlook the Iranian ballistic missile program and its deployment, the mainstream media also is impacted by this inclination. This is indicated by the light and deficient coverage of the recent Iran's unveiling of the fourth generation of its Khorramshahr ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 km (1,243 miles) and a 1,500 kg (3,300 lb) warhead as reported by the official IRNA news agency.  Iran named it Khaybar in reference to famous Islamic anti-jewish battle alongside a replica of the Al-Aqsa Mosque in the live broadcast of the state television. As usual, Iran directs its rhetoric against Israel and does not miss any show of its power in this regard . This is an official Iranian tradition and an essential pillar of the ideology o
Read more

Netherlands and Canada's ICJ Torture Case Against Syria: A New Era of International Indictment of Sovereign Governments' National Crimes

Image
Netherlands' torture and other ill-treatment case against Syria at the International Court of Justice opens a new chapter in the international order and practice. Although our previous experience with the international order and the international institutions, especially in the Syrian crisis, lets almost no room for any expectations for this case to end torture in Syria or to achieve any difference in the course of action of the Syrian regime, it definitely can lay the foundation for this end by the international documentation, indictment and recognition of these domestic crimes.   In general, this unprecedented ICJ case has a particular international importance as It has a real chance to prompt a beginning of some international system development in terms of the international responsibility and role concerning ill-governance, which is generally fenced by the norm of sovereignty, especially in terms of systematic practice of torture and other kindes of ill-treatment by
Read more