Middle East Policy

Islamic Jihad's only success was cancelling the week 19 Tel Aviv pro-democracy demonstrations. Just add democracy before the resistance axis and you will discover the real war in the Middle East. Seemingly, democracy has to win here to prevail in the Middle East. Only democracy and dignity will achieve peace in the region, which is one region and will always be. So, it is one war with multiple battles. The war for democracy and freedom is pertaining to human dignity, so it can never be sectarian, ethnic or divisive. Rather, it is unifying, pluralistic, philanthropic and pacifying struggle. So, let us unify and pacify our Middle East with democracy, freedom and human rights, and let us start from a real democratic Israel.  Here are my explanatory comments: - Abolishing the judiciary's independence in Israel will put it under government's authority and eventually will turn it into a part of the executive authority, and this will definitely destroy Isra...

With the comeback of the Syrian regime to the Arab Autocratic/Authoritarian League, the system of this regional institution has been restored to the normal operation condition. This is per se constitutes an achievement for the Arab mutual cooperation and for this institution, which has not any democratic member among 22 member states of the Arab League. This significant long-awaited breakthrough achievement finally restores the status of the Arab system to 'business as usual'. For the whining activists about tremendous atrocities, destruction and humanitarian catastrophe in Syria, they should answer a very simple question. Why around a million killed Syrians and more than 10 millions of Syrian displaced and refugees and undefined number of disappeared, tortured and raped Syrians besides a continued humanitarian disaster should affect the Arab regimes' 'business as usual' and the Arab League's normal condition? What is the relation or the connection ...

A meme putting the Iranian president in the seat of Syria at the Arab League.  One hard thing for political analysts and researchers when they find difficulty in understanding or analyzing some political development or course of action. A lot of ink has been spilled lately by political analysts and commentators trying to explain the unexpected and inexplicable decision of the Arab League to re-admit the Syrian regime after 12 years of suspension because of the atrocities committed by this regime against the Syrian people among other causes according to the suspension decision along with a started Arab normalization course with the Syrian regime. I am trying to explain this decision by spelling major reasonable causes and eventually derive the strategic significance of this political development.  - First thing to do here is to ask about what has changed in the context of the Syrian crisis and the suspension decision. The answer is nothing except for the military vi...

Once again, my empirical realistic perspective proves its competency and applicability. At the significance level, nothing exceptional can be inferred from the Iranian president's visit to Damascus should we apply conventional political analysis methodology. But this will not be the case if we put this visit in the context and perspective set by my latest related articles posted in the latest weeks. Starting from Iran's rising power in Syria and going through my conclusion about Iran's intention and plans to achieve a geopolitical change and advance its interests reaching to the realities of the changing Middle East accompanied by Iran's 'changer' role , we can transparently find out the significance and importance of this visit and its outcomes. - In general, through the lifespan of the Syrian war, there were no breakthroughs or considerable accomplishments at the level of state-to-state relations between Iran and Syria. Many agreements had been...

Only a few days after I inferred Iran's intentions to achieve a change and advanced interests at the regional and international levels derived from its acquired strong regional standing and cards, and a few weeks after writing on Iran's rising power in Syria following the failure of the US and Israeli policies there, a practical proof arose by the latest rocket salvo on Israel . Iran clearly wants new regional rules and position and consequent regional and international recognition of its power and interests. In my opinion, the ultimate prize in this regard that Iran is seeking is to protect its nuclear program and facilities in the pursuit of attaining the implicit regional and explicit international recognition of the reality of the nuclear Iran.  Iran's new endeavor has been made possible only with its entrenchment in Syria , so the rockets from Syria were the concluding line of the Iranian message of the multi-front rocket salvo. The weakening Russian rol...

Admitting frustration over Saudi's China-brokered rapprochement with Iran and Syria's new deal after implicit denial of their significance or strategic nature is a very good first step provided that it be complemented with considering the fact of being consequences of US policies and checking and reviewing these failed policies.  I said it before, it is a strategic move and new deal:  Middle East’s New Era: China’s Prominence and the U.S. Retreat And it is a consequence of the US frustrating and failing policies: The Middle East Is Heading East: Ending the Western Era?

Iran made a significant statement about its presence in Syria that has been almost overlooked by the media and analysts. Its significance wasn't highlighted despite it can be considered as a key development in this regard.   In general, we got used to the Iranian threatening rhetoric of retaliation after been hit by usually Israeli and occasionally US air strikes, but this is the first time Iran acknowledges its military 'bases' and their existence in Syria. The Iranian security spokesman was clear in using the term 'bases' in his threatening statement. This is an Iranian precedent to my knowledge. Iran usually talks about its advisors in Syria who assist the Syrian 'legitimate government' in its 'war against terrorism' and never indicated its possession of military bases or 'Iranian-linked' military bases throughout the entire duration of the war in Syria.   In my opinion, this is definitely not a statement to neglect or miss. Iran is delib...

  The Chinese president's message to his Russian counterpart has been made abundantly clear and self-evident to the extent that it needs no explanatory comments. Simply put, it is a proclamation of China's new international role and objective, which marks a new era in terms of the international order and politics.  - I have no doubt about the disfunctioning of the current US-led western international order due to its intrinsic flaws, unleashed capitalism's problems, and the world's changing balance of power. - Thus, a change in the post-cold war international order and politics is very prospective in the direction of more role and influence for the rising China and its forming international camp, as the victorious western powers couldn't maintain their political and economic paramount strengths, which limit their rivals respective strengths.  - In my opinion, the main problem of the current western-led international order is that it is actually based on and structu...

  Less than 3 months before this major development, I wrote this  commentary , which was faced with underestimation by many western fellow scholars. They wouldn't believe it considering the announced strategic partnership between China and Saudi Arabia as just tactical maneuver by Saudi Arabia the well-established US backyard ally for timely purposes and gains. This position was widely adopted by the US political and governmental circles as well. I can understand this western stance as a typical behavior because the leading powers along with their mentalities are usually reluctant to recognize and acknowledge ‘change’ that affects their supremacy in general. This  Chinese-backed agreement  constitutes a double blow to the US stand and interests in the Middle East in political terms for the following reasons. Firstly, China has shown and proved in the most practical and factual way that it has interests wide beyond the previously-established renown and accepted econom...

  Comparing aid offered by Deirezzor tribes and UN after Syria earthquake, calling on the UN to elect his grandfather instead of Mr. Guterres. A very informative material about the failure and impunity of the UN in the aftermath of the Syria earthquake, which led me to a substantial question about the dire negligence of the essential human rights by the UN vis-a-vis politically-biased norms and rules. This is a major blow to the rights-based approach of human rights achieved after long struggle.  https://syriaaccountability.org/too-little-too-late-for-northwest-syria-lethal-un-negligence-and-the-imperative-of-an-accountability-process/