Middle East Policy

Seven months ago, I wrote about the failure of the Israeli policy in Syria, which poses Israel as a main regional loser in the aftermath of the war in Syria. This article has been followed by other articles describing the following changing balance in the Middle East between Israel and Iran to the benefit of Iran and the role of Israeli policies and its traditional strategy and means toward its regional strategic loss. Meanwhile, the Israeli government and intelligence establishment were in quite different place claiming even achievements in Syria as regards Iran's entrenchment there. The academia and research institutions were in-between. Recently, it came to my attention this article by Ehud Yaari, which is the ever best Israeli analysis I have read in months. Finally, there is some scholar in Israel has the realistic and true assessment of the situation in Syria and the Israeli policy there along with the strategic conclusion. This is definitely a useful work, as th...

The new Syrian political/civil platform called Madaniya is a further and even advanced misstep to be added to the continuous series of mistakes by the Syrian opposition, so-called Syrian opposition or agent Syrian opposition. Apart from the entire absence of transparency and democratic mechanisms in governance, which usually leads to corruption and mercenariness, that characterize the vast majority of the Syrian opposition's institutions and entities, Madaniya is making a fatal precedent.  Madaniya is a political entity or an entity with political goals, as stated in its official documents, with a structure and shape of an umbrella for pre-set Syrian civil society organizations. Even though its official literature and rhetoric is causing a lot of confusion about the type and job of this ambiguous institution, the unfortunate and deliberate mix between the civil and political domains can only achieve one end that is to vandalize the both of them, especially the civil do...

It seems that the mainstream media follows the course of their governments in their coverage of political and other related developments. As the US Democrat administrations with many other European governments usually incline to practically overlook the Iranian ballistic missile program and its deployment, the mainstream media also is impacted by this inclination. This is indicated by the light and deficient coverage of the recent Iran's unveiling of the fourth generation of its Khorramshahr ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 km (1,243 miles) and a 1,500 kg (3,300 lb) warhead as reported by the official IRNA news agency.  Iran named it Khaybar in reference to famous Islamic anti-jewish battle alongside a replica of the Al-Aqsa Mosque in the live broadcast of the state television. As usual, Iran directs its rhetoric against Israel and does not miss any show of its power in this regard . This is an official Iranian tradition and an essential pillar of the ideology o...

Islamic Jihad's only success was cancelling the week 19 Tel Aviv pro-democracy demonstrations. Just add democracy before the resistance axis and you will discover the real war in the Middle East. Seemingly, democracy has to win here to prevail in the Middle East. Only democracy and dignity will achieve peace in the region, which is one region and will always be. So, it is one war with multiple battles. The war for democracy and freedom is pertaining to human dignity, so it can never be sectarian, ethnic or divisive. Rather, it is unifying, pluralistic, philanthropic and pacifying struggle. So, let us unify and pacify our Middle East with democracy, freedom and human rights, and let us start from a real democratic Israel.  Here are my explanatory comments: - Abolishing the judiciary's independence in Israel will put it under government's authority and eventually will turn it into a part of the executive authority, and this will definitely destroy Isra...

With the comeback of the Syrian regime to the Arab Autocratic/Authoritarian League, the system of this regional institution has been restored to the normal operation condition. This is per se constitutes an achievement for the Arab mutual cooperation and for this institution, which has not any democratic member among 22 member states of the Arab League. This significant long-awaited breakthrough achievement finally restores the status of the Arab system to 'business as usual'. For the whining activists about tremendous atrocities, destruction and humanitarian catastrophe in Syria, they should answer a very simple question. Why around a million killed Syrians and more than 10 millions of Syrian displaced and refugees and undefined number of disappeared, tortured and raped Syrians besides a continued humanitarian disaster should affect the Arab regimes' 'business as usual' and the Arab League's normal condition? What is the relation or the connection ...

A meme putting the Iranian president in the seat of Syria at the Arab League.  One hard thing for political analysts and researchers when they find difficulty in understanding or analyzing some political development or course of action. A lot of ink has been spilled lately by political analysts and commentators trying to explain the unexpected and inexplicable decision of the Arab League to re-admit the Syrian regime after 12 years of suspension because of the atrocities committed by this regime against the Syrian people among other causes according to the suspension decision along with a started Arab normalization course with the Syrian regime. I am trying to explain this decision by spelling major reasonable causes and eventually derive the strategic significance of this political development.  - First thing to do here is to ask about what has changed in the context of the Syrian crisis and the suspension decision. The answer is nothing except for the military vi...

Once again, my empirical realistic perspective proves its competency and applicability. At the significance level, nothing exceptional can be inferred from the Iranian president's visit to Damascus should we apply conventional political analysis methodology. But this will not be the case if we put this visit in the context and perspective set by my latest related articles posted in the latest weeks. Starting from Iran's rising power in Syria and going through my conclusion about Iran's intention and plans to achieve a geopolitical change and advance its interests reaching to the realities of the changing Middle East accompanied by Iran's 'changer' role , we can transparently find out the significance and importance of this visit and its outcomes. - In general, through the lifespan of the Syrian war, there were no breakthroughs or considerable accomplishments at the level of state-to-state relations between Iran and Syria. Many agreements had been...

Only a few days after I inferred Iran's intentions to achieve a change and advanced interests at the regional and international levels derived from its acquired strong regional standing and cards, and a few weeks after writing on Iran's rising power in Syria following the failure of the US and Israeli policies there, a practical proof arose by the latest rocket salvo on Israel . Iran clearly wants new regional rules and position and consequent regional and international recognition of its power and interests. In my opinion, the ultimate prize in this regard that Iran is seeking is to protect its nuclear program and facilities in the pursuit of attaining the implicit regional and explicit international recognition of the reality of the nuclear Iran.  Iran's new endeavor has been made possible only with its entrenchment in Syria , so the rockets from Syria were the concluding line of the Iranian message of the multi-front rocket salvo. The weakening Russian rol...

Admitting frustration over Saudi's China-brokered rapprochement with Iran and Syria's new deal after implicit denial of their significance or strategic nature is a very good first step provided that it be complemented with considering the fact of being consequences of US policies and checking and reviewing these failed policies.  I said it before, it is a strategic move and new deal:  Middle East’s New Era: China’s Prominence and the U.S. Retreat And it is a consequence of the US frustrating and failing policies: The Middle East Is Heading East: Ending the Western Era?

Iran made a significant statement about its presence in Syria that has been almost overlooked by the media and analysts. Its significance wasn't highlighted despite it can be considered as a key development in this regard.   In general, we got used to the Iranian threatening rhetoric of retaliation after been hit by usually Israeli and occasionally US air strikes, but this is the first time Iran acknowledges its military 'bases' and their existence in Syria. The Iranian security spokesman was clear in using the term 'bases' in his threatening statement. This is an Iranian precedent to my knowledge. Iran usually talks about its advisors in Syria who assist the Syrian 'legitimate government' in its 'war against terrorism' and never indicated its possession of military bases or 'Iranian-linked' military bases throughout the entire duration of the war in Syria.   In my opinion, this is definitely not a statement to neglect or miss. Iran is delib...